So, a bank failed this weekend, IndyMac. I found some of the press interesting. Here we have someone that learned a hard lesson from the failure, you are responsible for your money, nobody else:
"We have money we are afraid we are going to lose, I wish we were a little more savvy."
Right on! That is the attitude!
This is what happens when we turn to the government to protect us from everything. We become complacent, and we forget that in the end we are ones responsible for our success or failure.
You might say, hey, how were they supposed to know the bank would fail? Thats a good question. Some economics might have given you a clue. Generally the return on an investment is indicative of it's risk. One school teacher indicated he used IndyMac bank because of the "High interest rates it offered on deposits". One might wonder WHY the bank pays higher interest rates than other banks. This might well be a clear indication that you are taking more risk. It's not full-proof, but it's a good start.
In the end, I'd never put more than 100k in any bank (250k for retirement accounts). It's just bad business.
No doubt we will hear calls for more regulation and controls instead of calls for people educating themselves and understanding some simple economic facts. I'm all for regulation in the form of disclosure, by the way. We need to see all the facts, and then we need to be allowed the opportunity to make our own choices. This is true with banking, mortgages and anything else in this country. I don't need the government to protect me, just to make sure I have the information I need to make informed choices.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Sunday, July 06, 2008
My own measure of the economy....
So, everyone has been hearing how bad things are. The economy, housing, etc... I have my own economic dipstick and it's looking pretty sorry I must say. I am involved in a website called prosper.com.
Here I have a small amount of money parked that I've loaded to various people. Prosper is a unique community. Here you bid on loans, and various bids are combined together to make up a single loan. For example, someone might want to borrow $1000.00. On Prosper I will chip in $50 bucks, and 19 other people will chip in $50 bucks (or maybe some will chip in $100 or $200, whatever is needed). Once the loan is funded it's made.
So, usually with Prosper I always have one person who is like 15 days behind. I've had four people majority default on me in the past, that is the risk you take. Now, though, it's worse than it's ever been. Right now out of 17 loans I have:
11: Current
2: Late (<15d)
1: 1 month late
1: 3 months late
2: 4+ months late
Thats as bad as I've ever seen it. While this isn't a disaster, it certainly demonstrates that some people are finding it rough out there.
We need to turn this economy around. We need to be drilling for oil now. We need to cut taxes more now. We need to deal with the housing crisis now. We need quick resolution on foreclosure issues, quick resolution on adjustable mortgages that are about to have rates adjusted again, making payment impossible for the folks who will be impacted.
There are those that would say that they signed the mortgages, they should have read and understood the cost, the likelihood of a rate increase and how much that increase would be. They believe that we should just let the homeowner melt, and allow a hard, corrective action to occur.
There are those that would propose more regulation, more restriction and control over the mortgage industry.
I suggest both sides are wrong. I suggest that allowing a boat load of mortgages move into foreclosure is not good for this economy long term. It's not good for anyone except a few predatory investors waiting for the destruction to be complete. Foreclosure is not in the best interests of the mortgage companies, already reeling with red ink. To me, it seems that the best solution might well be a re-negotiation between the mortgage holder and the owner, making it possible for the owner to keep his or her house, and keeping the mortgage holders income stream going. A win-win for both in my mind.
Finally, the long term solution to this comes in the form of education and regulation in the sense of disclosure. I don't want to limit what kinds of mortgages are available, I don't want to add more regulation in a already heavily regulated world but we need to make sure that we understand the impacts of the papers we are signing. This is where education and disclosure come hand in hand. Can we require 8 hours of education before any first homeowner purchase? Can we require homeowner 101 be made available in the schools? We need a plan. Who will step up to the problem and make one without dragging us down with further regulation.
Here I have a small amount of money parked that I've loaded to various people. Prosper is a unique community. Here you bid on loans, and various bids are combined together to make up a single loan. For example, someone might want to borrow $1000.00. On Prosper I will chip in $50 bucks, and 19 other people will chip in $50 bucks (or maybe some will chip in $100 or $200, whatever is needed). Once the loan is funded it's made.
So, usually with Prosper I always have one person who is like 15 days behind. I've had four people majority default on me in the past, that is the risk you take. Now, though, it's worse than it's ever been. Right now out of 17 loans I have:
11: Current
2: Late (<15d)
1: 1 month late
1: 3 months late
2: 4+ months late
Thats as bad as I've ever seen it. While this isn't a disaster, it certainly demonstrates that some people are finding it rough out there.
We need to turn this economy around. We need to be drilling for oil now. We need to cut taxes more now. We need to deal with the housing crisis now. We need quick resolution on foreclosure issues, quick resolution on adjustable mortgages that are about to have rates adjusted again, making payment impossible for the folks who will be impacted.
There are those that would say that they signed the mortgages, they should have read and understood the cost, the likelihood of a rate increase and how much that increase would be. They believe that we should just let the homeowner melt, and allow a hard, corrective action to occur.
There are those that would propose more regulation, more restriction and control over the mortgage industry.
I suggest both sides are wrong. I suggest that allowing a boat load of mortgages move into foreclosure is not good for this economy long term. It's not good for anyone except a few predatory investors waiting for the destruction to be complete. Foreclosure is not in the best interests of the mortgage companies, already reeling with red ink. To me, it seems that the best solution might well be a re-negotiation between the mortgage holder and the owner, making it possible for the owner to keep his or her house, and keeping the mortgage holders income stream going. A win-win for both in my mind.
Finally, the long term solution to this comes in the form of education and regulation in the sense of disclosure. I don't want to limit what kinds of mortgages are available, I don't want to add more regulation in a already heavily regulated world but we need to make sure that we understand the impacts of the papers we are signing. This is where education and disclosure come hand in hand. Can we require 8 hours of education before any first homeowner purchase? Can we require homeowner 101 be made available in the schools? We need a plan. Who will step up to the problem and make one without dragging us down with further regulation.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Chicago and Mayor Richard M. Daley...
So, it's been a while since I've blogged. It's been a busy time working on a number of different projects.
This week has taken me to one of my old homes, the Chicago area. I spent a week here teaching a class. The class was a great experience. I had a room full of technically savvy folks, which makes the teaching process so easy. These guys were sharp and very nice. I met my first DJ - A-Swift (who's real name is Aaron) from California there... Nice guy. Here is his web site:
http://www.vjaswift.com/
While here, the Supreme Court announced it's decision on the District of Columbia vs. Heller case, otherwise known as the handgun case. This leads me to Richard Daley, the Mayor of Chicago.
I remember when I first moved to Chicago, I heard Daley open his mouth on the news and thought to myself, "How does someone who clearly lacks even a basic understanding of life manage to not only get put into office, but stay there." As I continued to live here, I found myself disagreeing with Daley on just about every topic you can imagine. What really bugged me is that his logic for his positions was so lacking and so invisible. In fact, there rarely was any logic but more a sound byte, or an insult or some statement that just seems to be filled with air. One of the things that I most enjoyed about moving away from Chicago was NOT having to listen to his drivel and his less-than-well-thought-out opinions.
You see, I don't mind someone who can challenge my point of view with some good logic... a good argument will go a long way to helping me to adjust my point of view. I'm not set in my ways, but you better have a good set of reasons for your point of view, and emotion does not count. Be smart, be succinct, and make sure that in the end you are defending the rights of human beings everywhere if you are going to change my mind. My mind can be changed, it has been many times before.
Daley, in response to the Supreme Court decision said:
"...the Court's decision in District of Columbia v. Heller is "very frightening" for America..." and also he said, "Why don't we do away with the court system?" Daley said. "The old West - you have a gun and I have a gun and we'll settle on the street."
Remember that this was about someones ability to have a handgun in their own home. The criminal is not concerned with the court system or anything else. The court system is small recompense for a dead homeowner in a home invasion, or a homeowner who has the nerve to come home in the middle of a robbery. The court system is of little comfort to the families of victims of these kinds of incidents.
Daley is clearly an "American" that has yet to sit and read the constitution and it's associated Bill of Rights. He had this brilliant statement to make:
"The Supreme Court and Congress has no obligation to keep our country safe. That falls on the backs of mayors and local officials,”
If Daley were smart he might make the argument that the second amendment does not apply to personal ownership of guns. Instead he makes a totally indefensible statement that somehow the federal government has no obligation to "keep our country safe". In light of the pre-amble of the constitution, this must be among the most stupid comments that I've ever seen from any human being, period. Our federal government has every obligation to keep our country safe. Mr. Daley, for your edification, let me repeat the preamble of the constitution of this great nation:
"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
Men like Daley, and their stupid (in my opinion), socialist/communist, get me the left wing votes, un-american ramblings are protected by this same constitution and it's related amendments. I for one am thankful that I don't have to live in an area where I hear all that much from him anymore. Stupidity in politics is one thing, but flaming stupidity is another.
And yet, he keeps getting re-elected. What is in the water in that town?
This week has taken me to one of my old homes, the Chicago area. I spent a week here teaching a class. The class was a great experience. I had a room full of technically savvy folks, which makes the teaching process so easy. These guys were sharp and very nice. I met my first DJ - A-Swift (who's real name is Aaron) from California there... Nice guy. Here is his web site:
http://www.vjaswift.com/
While here, the Supreme Court announced it's decision on the District of Columbia vs. Heller case, otherwise known as the handgun case. This leads me to Richard Daley, the Mayor of Chicago.
I remember when I first moved to Chicago, I heard Daley open his mouth on the news and thought to myself, "How does someone who clearly lacks even a basic understanding of life manage to not only get put into office, but stay there." As I continued to live here, I found myself disagreeing with Daley on just about every topic you can imagine. What really bugged me is that his logic for his positions was so lacking and so invisible. In fact, there rarely was any logic but more a sound byte, or an insult or some statement that just seems to be filled with air. One of the things that I most enjoyed about moving away from Chicago was NOT having to listen to his drivel and his less-than-well-thought-out opinions.
You see, I don't mind someone who can challenge my point of view with some good logic... a good argument will go a long way to helping me to adjust my point of view. I'm not set in my ways, but you better have a good set of reasons for your point of view, and emotion does not count. Be smart, be succinct, and make sure that in the end you are defending the rights of human beings everywhere if you are going to change my mind. My mind can be changed, it has been many times before.
Daley, in response to the Supreme Court decision said:
"...the Court's decision in District of Columbia v. Heller is "very frightening" for America..." and also he said, "Why don't we do away with the court system?" Daley said. "The old West - you have a gun and I have a gun and we'll settle on the street."
Remember that this was about someones ability to have a handgun in their own home. The criminal is not concerned with the court system or anything else. The court system is small recompense for a dead homeowner in a home invasion, or a homeowner who has the nerve to come home in the middle of a robbery. The court system is of little comfort to the families of victims of these kinds of incidents.
Daley is clearly an "American" that has yet to sit and read the constitution and it's associated Bill of Rights. He had this brilliant statement to make:
"The Supreme Court and Congress has no obligation to keep our country safe. That falls on the backs of mayors and local officials,”
If Daley were smart he might make the argument that the second amendment does not apply to personal ownership of guns. Instead he makes a totally indefensible statement that somehow the federal government has no obligation to "keep our country safe". In light of the pre-amble of the constitution, this must be among the most stupid comments that I've ever seen from any human being, period. Our federal government has every obligation to keep our country safe. Mr. Daley, for your edification, let me repeat the preamble of the constitution of this great nation:
"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
Men like Daley, and their stupid (in my opinion), socialist/communist, get me the left wing votes, un-american ramblings are protected by this same constitution and it's related amendments. I for one am thankful that I don't have to live in an area where I hear all that much from him anymore. Stupidity in politics is one thing, but flaming stupidity is another.
And yet, he keeps getting re-elected. What is in the water in that town?
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Beware the hidden parameters... magic comes at a cost!
I was reading a series of posts on Oracle-L which had to do with a database that would not come up due to undo tablespace corruption.
http://www.freelists.org/archives/oracle-l/04-2008/msg00821.html
There are some undocumented ways to respond to undo corruption. An example of one way is mentioned in the following blog (you can find this solution many places, but this is just one example I found):
http://priyambodo.blogspot.com/2007/03/oracle-undo-tablespace-corrupt-in.html
(note there are other solutions for other specific conditions, but the same basic principles exist - I also have not taken painstaking measures to review the technical content of this blog entry, so use it at your own risk!!).
Now, the point of this post is this. The magic UNDO solution suggested here, using hidden parameters is all well and good, you might well get your database open again. I've been in places where this method was used just fine, and the database opened.
Unfortunately, afterwards folks didn't want to consider the potential negative ramifications to the database having used this method. What is the problem you ask? Well think about what UNDO is all about. Undo is the before image of a block that has been changed. It's used during recovery to rollback any uncommitted changes. The implication here then is that your data may well be inconsistent after you open the database using the method outlined above.
Want more? Think about the system tablespace and the Oracle metadata. IT used UNDO also, and so the SYSTEM tablespace data may well be inconsistent. Thus, you essentially have a corrupted SYSTEM tablespace. Not a good situation.
So, if you are going to use this big hammer, consider these implications. What I'd do is if you manage to get your database open, use exp or expdp to do a backup, recreate the thing and then load the data into the database. Your data may still be corrupt, but at least the system tablespace will be pure.
You can go fix your own data yourself.
Finally, this can all be magically solved if you introduce a sound and TESTED BACKUP STRATEGY before you have the failure. If you have a sound backup strategy I can almost assure you that you will never run into this kind of situation.
Oh yeah, I wrote a book on just that topic, backing up your database with RMAN....
http://www.amazon.com/Oracle-Database-RMAN-Backup-Recovery/dp/0072263172/ref=pd_ts_b_9?ie=UTF8&s=books
http://www.freelists.org/archives/oracle-l/04-2008/msg00821.html
There are some undocumented ways to respond to undo corruption. An example of one way is mentioned in the following blog (you can find this solution many places, but this is just one example I found):
http://priyambodo.blogspot.com/2007/03/oracle-undo-tablespace-corrupt-in.html
(note there are other solutions for other specific conditions, but the same basic principles exist - I also have not taken painstaking measures to review the technical content of this blog entry, so use it at your own risk!!).
Now, the point of this post is this. The magic UNDO solution suggested here, using hidden parameters is all well and good, you might well get your database open again. I've been in places where this method was used just fine, and the database opened.
Unfortunately, afterwards folks didn't want to consider the potential negative ramifications to the database having used this method. What is the problem you ask? Well think about what UNDO is all about. Undo is the before image of a block that has been changed. It's used during recovery to rollback any uncommitted changes. The implication here then is that your data may well be inconsistent after you open the database using the method outlined above.
Want more? Think about the system tablespace and the Oracle metadata. IT used UNDO also, and so the SYSTEM tablespace data may well be inconsistent. Thus, you essentially have a corrupted SYSTEM tablespace. Not a good situation.
So, if you are going to use this big hammer, consider these implications. What I'd do is if you manage to get your database open, use exp or expdp to do a backup, recreate the thing and then load the data into the database. Your data may still be corrupt, but at least the system tablespace will be pure.
You can go fix your own data yourself.
Finally, this can all be magically solved if you introduce a sound and TESTED BACKUP STRATEGY before you have the failure. If you have a sound backup strategy I can almost assure you that you will never run into this kind of situation.
Oh yeah, I wrote a book on just that topic, backing up your database with RMAN....
http://www.amazon.com/Oracle-Database-RMAN-Backup-Recovery/dp/0072263172/ref=pd_ts_b_9?ie=UTF8&s=books
Thursday, April 17, 2008
I have HAD IT!!! And I'm not going to take it anymore.
Ok... time to vent. I like to read. Magazines are among my favorite form of reading (I like science magazines, airplane magazines, train magazines, financial and the like). I like them because the information is generally current, up to date and always interesting.
But I'm SICK AND TIRED of this.... I'm reading in my favorite magazine. I turn the page, and this STUPID CARD comes flying out and lands on the floor. With each stupid magazine maybe 2-4 of these buzz bombs falls out. This is IRRITATING to me. Not only is it irritating when they just fall to the floor and mess it up, but I like to sit in my bath and read from time to time too... so then the cards get wet. Plus it's just killing more trees.
So, I have a plan. I think we should all take these cards, shred them up and then send a bulk set of them to each publisher once a month with a letter that says, STOP PUTTING LOOSE SUBSCRIPTION CARDS IN MY MAGAZINE!!
Does anyone hate this as much as I do?
But I'm SICK AND TIRED of this.... I'm reading in my favorite magazine. I turn the page, and this STUPID CARD comes flying out and lands on the floor. With each stupid magazine maybe 2-4 of these buzz bombs falls out. This is IRRITATING to me. Not only is it irritating when they just fall to the floor and mess it up, but I like to sit in my bath and read from time to time too... so then the cards get wet. Plus it's just killing more trees.
So, I have a plan. I think we should all take these cards, shred them up and then send a bulk set of them to each publisher once a month with a letter that says, STOP PUTTING LOOSE SUBSCRIPTION CARDS IN MY MAGAZINE!!
Does anyone hate this as much as I do?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
